A few military generals within Salva Kiir’s government might rebel before 5 years end – Analyst

Photo: Gen,Ochan Puot forces in Maiwut during integration into SSDF

08/06/2020 (JUBA) – The president’s decrees have otherwise left many of his former allies take up arms against his administration in the recent past. The latest generals are Gen. paul Malong Awan and Dr.Thomas Cirillo. Malong protested his removal by turning againt his own former boss. Dr.Thomas Cirillo who defected much earlier, accused the government of graft and dividing citizens along tribal line. He afterwards formed The National Salvation Front, commonly known as NAS. Gen Cirillo himself vanished with a reported amount of $10 million which of course facilitated the kick-off of his movement. The general, who was in charge of SPLA/M logistics and so, is now a self-proclaimed freedom fighter. His forces have engaged the SPLA in fierce battles with recent attacks being witnessed around the former Yei River Sate unlike Malong’s forces. The movement (Dr’s) is still active and can pose a major threat that can have a revolving impact on the Juba administration.

The unhappiness on generals’ faces is exposed and statistics have it that they can take up arms any time. This is not due to a possible or a surprised presidential decree that is likely to uproot them from their adored positions, but because of burning ambitions on who should take the country to ‘promise land.’ Many have their eyes on top seat and it is no secret as it is drawn from a line that marks the unfolding of weird and disappointing events in SPLM party. The president might at least only trust his security advisors as they have not shown any disloyalty in the recent past compared to the vast majority of generals in the government.

Kiir has played his cards wisely and if it were not so, the fragile state of his current administration known entirely as Revitalized Transitional Government of the National Unity would have fallen. There have been gaps and vacuums starting with at least the insecurity within Juba. The scenario is compared to a broken chair that still stands and if given a slight push, it would shatters. This is perhaps the motivation and the aspiration behind Dr. Kerubino Wol’s reason to take up arms against his administration with a promise to toppling it and bringing an everlasting freedom and equality to every citizen. Cattle raids and tribal clashes plus murdering of civilians in areas of Yei has spoken not only of a disintegrating system, but a system which its elites wish to reform but cannot reform while they are still serving under the umbrella of his majesty. This has created a form of envy and anyone among them can, with a full chance, overthrow the president in not more than five years period. In a leaked report, one military general had in fact tried but his screte moves fell under heavy betrayals and he could be in trouble in a months or a few years’ time.

It is a well-known fact that his colleagues have secretly criticized his poor governance and its delicate policies but have always hide behind the scene without taking bold steps. One person that broke the odds is Dr. Riek Machar whose army fought to topple the government till the current peace agreement. You can say that everyone wants that seat but only a few can try it out. This is the reason and the gate to massive rebellion in the near future as some are actually getting fed-up and want to bring change.

Vice President, H.E. Taban Deng Gai has in fact boldly admitted that it is time for change by saying,

“Your excellency it is time to move this country forward”

These enquoted words were spoken by Taban during a meeting where the presidency had a serious meeting that is highlighted here https://ramcielbc.com/?p=307

With such scenarios, generals will not be sustained and will courageously try to topple their own boss. The causes will be simple provocations or the well-known presidential decree ‘smart’ moves which some won’t tolerate.

For now, things are calm but boiling or rather getting ripe. But Kiir has always beat his competitors and for him to be kicked,  and for any general to succeed, then, they would need serious calculations or otherwise rot in jail or lie feet-under as a result of failure.

This analysis is a summary from a long report by our editorial desk on the SPLM foes and allies and as well as the struggle within.

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